Presentations by regional representatives of the Federal Reserve System are expected today. - 23.6.2021

On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell for the second day in a row. This happened against the background of the statement of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell that the US central bank will need time to tighten monetary policy. In his opinion, the surge in inflation in May to 5% is temporary. New York Fed director John Williams said the debate over the timing of the Fed's rate hike is far from over. U.S. yield 10-year Treasury on Monday fell to 1.354% per annum, which is the lowest in 4 months. Now it has slightly adjusted upward. Recall that the next Fed meeting will be held on July 28. Last week, the US Dollar Index posted its highest growth of 1.9% since March 2020. The main positive was the Fed's decision to raise the rate twice in 2023. Moreover, 7 out of 18 directors of the Federal Reserve offered to carry out the first rate hike next year. Today, three FRS representatives are expected to speak at once: Michelle Bowman, Raphael Bostic and Eric Rosengren.

On Tuesday, the change in US stock indexes rose for the second day in a row. Nasdaq has updated its all-time high. The postponement of the FRS rate hike has a negative impact on the dollar exchange rate, but at the same time it supports the stock market. Nvidia, a maker of computer graphics cards, rose 2.5% yesterday on the back of demand for video cards from cryptocurrency miners. In 2 years, Nvidia quotes have skyrocketed almost 6 times. Microsoft shares (+ 1.1%) hit their all-time high yesterday. The company's capitalization has almost reached $ 2 trillion. Additional positive for the stock market was the data on sales of residential buildings in the secondary market in May (8.5 million). They exceeded the forecast (5.72 million). Markit Manufacturing PMI for June and new home sales in May are due in the US today. The forecast is positive. US index futures are currently trading higher.

World oil prices hit their highs yesterday since October 2018. This was facilitated by the recovery of the global air travel and international tourism market after the coronavirus pandemic. Bank of America does not rule out that oil prices will reach $ 100 per barrel next year. The independent American Petroleum Institute announced a decrease in US oil reserves for the week by 7.2 million barrels. Their decline has been observed for the 5th week in a row. Investors are looking forward to the next OPEC + meeting, which will take place on July 1. Russia, under Western economic sanctions, calls on the cartel to increase oil production more than previously planned (+ 441 thousand barrels per day, bpd). However, the final increase in oil production in July will be greater anyway, since Saudi Arabia will additionally increase production by 400 thousand bpd. Following the planned hikes for July, OPEC + 's total production will be 5.76 million bpd less than the pre-covid level in May 2020. A smooth recovery in oil production should take place by the end of the year, but will depend on world prices and demand.