Today will be published indicators of business activity in the US industry - 3.10.2022

On Friday, the US dollar index rose slightly after a 2-day decline. This was supported by good economic data. In particular, in August the United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index turned out to be better than expected and slightly decreased to 6.2% y/y compared to 6.4% in July. Investors hope that US inflation (+8.3% y/y) will also start to decrease. In the European Union on Friday, preliminary data on inflation for September were published. It reached a record level of 10% y/y and had a negative impact on the euro. This morning, positive data on inflation in Switzerland for September (+3.3%) came out.

Bitcoin has been trading below the psychological $20,000 mark, which is now a resistance level, for 3 weeks. New tokens appear on the crypto market, which do not depend much on mining and actually look like crypto deposits. They compete with traditional cryptocurrencies. However, at the end of last week, a powerful outflow of bitcoins from cryptocurrency exchanges in the amount of almost $670 million was noticed. This may be evidence that large players are not going to sell. Accordingly, there is a chance for an increase in the quotes of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

This morning, futures for US stock indices are correcting up after a noticeable decline at the end of last week. On Friday, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for September came out. It turned out to be worse than expected and amounted to 58.6 points. Accordingly, the industry index Dow Jones Consumer Goods (-2.1%) turned out to be the drop leader. Today in the US there will be indicators of business activity in the industry: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending. Forecasts are positive. In addition, speeches by regional directors of the Fed are expected. Note that this year the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes have fallen 3 quarters in a row. This happened for the first time since 2008, when there was a global economic crisis.

Now oil quotes are slightly rising. Since OPEC+ does not rule out a 1 million barrel per day (bpd) production cut in November. This may be announced at its next meeting on 5 October. Recall that at the previous meeting in September, OPEC+ already cut production by 100,000 bpd once. The main reason for this is the decrease in global demand for oil, against the backdrop of a slowdown in global economic growth.

The price of natural gas in Europe (TTF) is now below $2,000 per thousand cubic meters. It is possible that such a decrease is due to the measures taken to save gas in the EU countries.