The dynamics of currency pairs will depend on the data from the USA. - 2.1.2014

As expected, the speculative "game" against the U.S. dollar has not yet received further development. The last day of 2013 consumer confidence index came, which was better than the preliminary forecasts. Last year the strengthening of the dollar against the Japanese yen (USDJPY) was the most significant since 1979 (21%). By the way, we want to note that the Japanese market will be closed today and tomorrow because of the Christmas holidays. There could be an increased volatility. In previous reports we have noted the opinion of BoJ presentatives that in the current economic situation the rate 108 yen per dollar would be convenient. At the same time representatives of major private international banks were cautious and announced 106 yen level.

Pound (GBPUSD) continued gaining positions against the U.S. dollar. The euro exchange rate (EURUSD), on the contrary, dropped. In our opinion, this is logical, as interest rates is likely to raise in the UK. More about this we wrote in the previous reviews. Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) has slightly strengthened. Perhaps part of the "players" are counting on the implementation of a reversal chart pattern "double bottom" on the weekly chart. In our opinion it is better to wait for more clear signals. In December China's industrial production growth slowed. That can be a negative for Australian dollar because China is a major buyer of Australian minerals.

In general , we believe that the dynamics of currency pairs will be stronger than usual depend on macroeconomic data in the USA. Market participants want to understand how fast the Fed will stop their policy of "quantitative easing". The next Fed meeting is held in January 28-29. Today, the U.S. releases a number of important data - December ISM Manufacturing, November Construction Spending (MoM) at 16-00 GMT and Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 14-30 GMT. Preliminary forecasts are slightly negative. Tomorrow meaningful data from the United States is not expected. In Eurozone and UK today, there are indicators of industrial production for December, at 10-00 GMT and 10-30 GMTrespectively. Their forecast is neutral.

Gold (XAUUSD) went up by 2.5%. As we have noted in previous reviews, after the price drop of almost 28% over last year, the current price level looks quite attractive to buyers in Southeast Asia. An additional positive news is that Chinese Central Bank plans to increase the number of companies that will be engaged in the import and export of gold, as well as to reduce the requirements for individual buyers. Amid rising gold silver (XAGUSD) on world markets went up by 4%. Let's note that in the last year the price of silver dropped mostly since 1981 by 36%.

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