Dollar falls as stocks rise - 15.5.2015

American indices advanced on Thursday on weekly unemployment statistics that dropped to 15-year low. Meanwhile, US Dollar Index decreased to its four-month minimum, driving up S&P 500 to a historical record. Nasdaq Composite have risen to its strongest since January. Market participants believe that the falling dollar will make American corporations more competitive. Weak manufacturer prices dynamics in April produced additional pressure on the dollar. To be noted, investors estimate the chances that Fed will hike rate this year as 50/50. It may not happen despite talking and waiting for two years. Yesterday's American stocks trade volume was 5% below the weekly average, making 6 bln shares. Today at 15:15 CET Industrial Production in April will be published in the US. At 16:00 CET University of Michigan will release Consumer Confidence Index; the originally positive forecast was reduced to neutral.

European stocks have been growing further, boosted by Thursday macroeconomic statistics from the US and positive corporate reports. Roche pharmaceutical company informed about successfully testing a new cure for cancer: the shares gained 3.1%. There were new reports that Moneo seed producer was going to buy Syngenta agricultural company, so Syngenta shares surged. No important macroeconomic statistics are expected today in the EU.

Nikkei have recovered yesterday's losses. It slowly reacts to global positive data because of the difference in time. Dentsu corporation announced stocks repurchasing, so its shares added 14%. Nikon released weak earning forecast; the company's shares plunged 13.5%. Sharp retreated 11% as it reported losses for the third time in four years. In our opinion, apart from bad corporate statistics, the strong yen restrained Nikkei surge. At 6:30 CET on Monday Industrial Production in March will be released in Japan.

As expected in previous overviews, beef, grain and gold futures continued growing. American National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center informed that the chance of El Nino emerging this year was 90%. Due to that wheat marked the sharpest daily growth in 6 months yesterday. Corn quotes showed positive dynamics, while soybean hardly inched. Informa Economics agency forecasted that this year planting area will amount to 87.2 mln acres, which is above Department of Agriculture estimates.

Beef futures have been expanding further in prospect of holidays: Memorial Day on May, 25 and Father's day. The livestock inventory numbers 89.8 mln heads - the third lowest since 1952. As compared to the previous year, beef production in the USA has contracted 7.3% from January to mid-May.

Sugar futures dropped in prospect of good crops in Brazil. Cacao quotes rose to their 7-month strongest largely because of arbitrage transactions between New York and London exchanges. The pound, which strengthened after the Conservative party victory in Britain, produced additional support to cacao futures.